Where the base already exists.

Northeast and Bajío corridors dominate the observed manufacturing evidence.¹ 729 municipalities pass the employment-need screen; none has observed RCA ≥ 1 in the four covered export baskets. EV municipal trade is unavailable, and missing customs observations do not establish an absence of jobs or suppliers. Test employment, suppliers and commuting links before choosing an intervention. Explore need and trade coverage →

Auto supplier upgrading is the largest near-term conversion base; grid hardware is both a supply play and a demand constraint; EV components expose the battery-systems gap.

Procurement standards, clean electricity, supplier finance, and testing capacity need to be sequenced together rather than treated as separate workstreams.

Import substitution starts from each play’s import bill, which is the addressable market. How much of the export dollar Mexico already keeps, who adds the rest, and how that split moved over a decade are measured in section 05. The capability to manufacture is already in Mexico; ownership of the highest-value tiers is not, and a content rule alone cannot change that. The supplier roster names who makes what, and who owns them. Read the roster →

On value-added tax, close to nothing reaches the Treasury from what a plant makes: IVA follows where a good is consumed, nets to zero between businesses, and is zero-rated on exports, so what a plant owes arises on its domestic sales. Owner: Congress and SHCP, by statute. Corporate income tax is decoupled from real profit by the maquila safe harbour (LISR Art. 182), which sets taxable profit by formula on assets or costs, and SHCP itself says it cannot estimate the regime. What a plant does return is payroll: income tax withheld from its workers, employer social contributions, and the state payroll tax.

Of the three payroll legs, only the state payroll tax is state revenue. The figure applies statutory rates to a fixed contribution-base proxy before relief: 30 of 32 states can reduce or waive it for new investment, 17 case by case, so 99–100% of every chain’s calculated payroll tax sits in a state that can relieve it. Actual taxable payroll and exemptions require separate records. See the state calculations →

No, and reading it that way sends policy after the wrong target. Every economy with its own supplier base sits above Mexico, and the other assembly platforms sit below it. A platform assembles what other people make, so the domestic share reports the position rather than the performance. What it does say is that the room to move is upstream, in the inputs rather than the assembly. See the whole dollar →

On the inputs, and not evenly. The foreign half of the dollar concentrates in the sectors Mexican industry contributes least to, which is where a content instrument has something to buy and where an import bill is an addressable market rather than a wish. It is still not automatic substitution: a named lever has to move it, and the lever differs by chain. The capability to manufacture is already here; ownership of the highest-value tiers is not, and a content rule alone cannot change that. Read the roster →