Lineup · MX · Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab

Building clean industry is not about picking the right sector. It is about lining things up.

Clean power, capability, capital, and buyers' rules on one screen, so the coordination call gets made before the concrete sets.

When the four line upyou have a play.
See everything you can do
The problem

Industrial policy is a coordination problem.

A clean factory needs four things at one place, at one time. Miss one and the bet does not convert. The hard part is the lineup, not any single ingredient.

But these four decisions sit in four different offices, and none of them sees the others.

The binding constraint

The scarce input is coordination.

Policies rarely fail because someone picked the wrong industry. They fail because the pieces never lined up.

So Lineup makes one thing cheaper: seeing across the four silos, at the same time, for a specific place and a specific play.
The instrument

One screen, four silos, where the base already exists.

Mexico is already one of the great manufacturing countries. The question is never whether Mexico can industrialize. It is where clean power, capability, standards, and finance line up fast enough to turn that base into clean industrial advantage. Where. What. How.

Lineup map with the relatedness choropleth, the transmission grid, and the investment pipeline all switched on at once.
Four silos, one surface. Relatedness under the transmission grid, with the investment pipeline on top.
What to build

Three plays, chosen on the data.

Ten candidates, ranked on exports, capability fit, and market size. Three made the cut: $30B auto, $42B EV, $16.8B grid. All stand on factories that exist today.

EV and Grid are a near-tie for second; Auto Supplier holds first in a thousand re-weightings.

From wish to plan

A play card is a buildable plan, not a press release.

Each play opens into a buildable plan: products, location, standards, a six-year sequence, and a capital stack. Standards and power contracts run in parallel.

Where it meets the grid

It stops being a report. It becomes a map.

Sixteen composable layers across three tabs lay capability over energy over capital. Switch them on together and the four silos sit on one surface.

Grid · EnergyIs the power there, and clean? 88.5 GW, 37% clean. Transmission and nodes, state by state.
Competitiveness · CapabilityHow close is each state? Relatedness density. The Bajio and the Northeast sit closest to the plays.
Pipeline · CapitalCapital needs an address. 431 industrial parks, colored by play fit, shaded by net-zero readiness.
All three · composedBreak the silos. Energy, capability, and capital lit at once. One number to call, not four.
Priced and owned

Where the grid binds, and who fixes it.

The newest surface puts a price on the collision. Where new demand pays a premium, the wires are full. And every bottleneck has an owner and an action.

Constraint Maps · National Constraint Maps: day-ahead price premiums ranked into cells across the country.
Twelve months of real prices. 2,603 grid nodes. New demand in Puebla pays up to 157 pesos/MWh over the system price, near zero a decade ago.
Constraint Maps · Owners Constraint Maps: per-play constraint families with owners and a finance annex.
Every constraint has an owner. Six families per play, each named to who fixes it and what to do this year.
ConstraintWho owns the fixAction
Full transmissionCFEReinforce the corridor
Connection queueCENACEClear the interconnection backlog
Tenor gap on financeNAFIN · BancomextClose the long-term financing gap
Clean supply at the nodeDevelopersContract local clean generation and storage
The new variable

A gigawatt lands. Catalyze or cannibalize?

A hyperscale data center is, first, a gigawatt of demand competing for the grid industry needs. Planned with new clean power and wires, it catalyzes a build-out industry shares. Dropped on today's grid, it cannibalizes that headroom, met at the margin with gas. A planning decision, not physics.

↗ Catalyze
↗ Borderline
○ Contained
⚠ Strained
↘ Cannibalize
↗ CatalyzeFirmed clean power plus a shared grid build-out that serves industry too, with margin to spare.
○ ContainedServed, often off-grid, but anchors no shared build-out for industry.
↘ CannibalizeLeans on gas and imports; the headroom industry needed goes negative.

Two states, two honest answers, on the next screen.

Live · Querétaro

The screen: catalyze or cannibalize.

Querétaro draws roughly twice what it generates, with a data-center hub landing on the same grid its factories depend on. Set the connection mode and toggle the levers. The verdict updates live.

Connection mode
Data-center load
1,120 MW
Policy levers
Peak-shave assumption
Cannibalize
Cannibalize · screening
Demand
Supply
Grid gap
Industry headroom

Live screening tool. The verdict narrative is shown in English. A screening read, not an engineering capacity study.

Live · Nuevo León

A readiness diagnosis, not a balance.

Nuevo León is a nearshoring engine, not a data-center case, but the grid evidence to certify it does not exist yet. Rather than a false answer, this screen names what is missing. Only the grid-evidence dial is binding.

Constrained, pipeline-rich, not peak-certified

Nuevo León is not a data-center cannibalization case. It is a nearshoring load-certification case: grid evidence is binding, not physical capacity.

Certification checklist: what would upgrade the call
  • State peak demand, NL-onlyCENACE control-region / nodal peak
  • Substation / corridor MWCFE PRODESEN transmission plan (MVA)
  • Interconnection queueCENACE / CRE interconnection studies
  • Clean-pipeline delivery dateSENER / CRE permits + project COD
  • Industrial load shapeCFE metered profiles / DENUE

Live screening tool. The diagnosis is shown in English. Growth assumptions do not change the call; grid evidence does.

The honest edge

What it is, and what it is not.

Precision about the limits is the point. Every result on the platform prints its limits next to it.

It does

  • Integrate information across the four silos
  • Rank the plays robustly: a thousand re-weightings, first place never moved
  • Price the grid constraint from observed market prices
  • Name who owns each fix

It does not

  • Decide for the institutions; it makes seeing cheap, not deciding
  • Replace an engineering capacity study
  • Optimize power dispatch; the grid operator already does that
  • Replace human judgment on where the concrete goes
Everything here is live, public, and needs no login. It is a screening instrument for the room that did not have one, not a substitute for the studies that follow.
Everything you can do

Nine surfaces, one platform.

Each one answers a different question, and links to the next. Start anywhere.

The ask

Two invitations.

For funders

Fund the coordination bottleneck.

The highest-leverage, least-funded point in industrial policy. The next phase is not more software. It is one real engagement: a state, its data, its decisions, with a partner in the room.

For Mexican deciders

Bring us your state.

You sit in one silo. We put the other three on your screen, for your plays, your nodes, your pipeline. Live today, in English and Spanish.

When the four line up, you have a play. Catalyze or cannibalize is a planning decision, and now there is an accessible instrument for making it well.

Trae tu estado. Lo ponemos en una sola pantalla.

About the Lab